In a roller-coaster week of U.S. political happenings, we were pleasantly surprised to see climate change get ten minutes of unplanned airtime in the first (and possibly only) presidential debate.
U.S. federal policy and action (or lack thereof) to address the climate crisis over the next decade is incredibly important. What do the different scenarios look like?
The Trump or Republican administration scenario is easy: more disaster status quo. Trump has no plan, holds questionable beliefs on climate change, and, at best, wants better “forest management” — though it’s unclear what that means. We doubt he knows either.
The Biden-Harris campaign has a lot more to dig into, listing climate 5th on its policy list. In fact, Biden’s climate policy clocks in at over 7,000 words (28 pages).
That’s a lot of attention for an issue that, well, deserves a lot of attention.
Here’s what it says:
Headline Climate Targets
The flagship target is a 100% clean-energy economy and net-zero emissions by the year 2050. The Biden campaign wants to focus on energy, transportation, and buildings first (~40% of of America’s carbon footprint), then transition other segments of the economy.
The plan targets a carbon-free power and energy sector by 2035, while making major investments in electric vehicles (EVs), railroads, and municipal public transit networks. For comparison, this is five years slower than the original Green New Deal, which targeted 2030.
Under the Biden plan, all new commercial buildings and affordable housing will need to comply with new zero-emission sustainability standards by 2030.
While climate science suggests we should collectively move as fast as possible (i.e., net zero between 2030 and 2040), if enacted a Biden administration puts the U.S. on the path to have some of the most aggressive climate targets of any major economy - and on a similar timeline to Germany’s carbon-free roadmap.
In many ways it’s a very promising start.
Towards a Zero Carbon Economy
Thanks to coaching and pressure from more thoughtful climate realists like Washington Governor Jay Inslee, Senator Ed Markey, Senator Jeff Merkley, AOC, and Cecilia Martinez from the Center for Earth, Energy and Democracy, Biden’s climate plan is an economic transformation plan that re-envisions the way we work and what we work on.
Fundamentally this makes sense. The three fastest growing jobs in the United States? Wind turbine service technicians, nurses, and solar installers. The proof points already exist.
The Biden plan proposes taking that further, including reviving the U.S. auto manufacturing industry to make EVs, infrastructure, and their supply chain components.
In cities, job creation targets zero-emissions public transportation, electricity grids, construction, and building retrofitting. In rural areas, new jobs will be created for sustainable agriculture (though this is one of the less spelled out areas of the plan in terms of specifics), resilience, and conservation via a new Civilian Climate Corps — much like the Civilian Conservation Corps FDR launched in 1933 as part of his response to the Great Depression.
The plan also invests in transitioning existing fossil fuel works and providing labor protections, using Merkley’s “Good Jobs for the 21st Century” framework.
Next, Biden wants to invest in critical clean energy innovation — “battery storage, negative emissions technologies, the next generation building materials, renewable hydrogen, and advanced nuclear – and rapidly commercialize them, ensuring that those new technologies are made in America.”
Climate Justice Through the Biden Lens
Compared to the Green New Deal, the Biden climate plan is more conservative in terms of social welfare, environmental justice, and support for marginalized communities. That said, it does say “disadvantaged communities will receive 40% of overall benefits of spending in the areas of clean energy and energy efficiency deployment; clean transit and transportation; affordable and sustainable housing; training and workforce development; remediation and reduction of legacy pollution; and development of critical clean water infrastructure.”
Moreover, the Biden plan formally creates an Environmental and Climate Justice Division inside the Department of Justice (DOJ), introducing a new layer of legal accountability around pollution and environmental justice issues.
We Pay or We All Pay
Biden’s climate plan requires $2 trillion in investment over many years, which commonly invites the “how will we pay for it?” objection from fiscal conservatives.
For starters, between job creation, economic stimulus, and climate risk mitigation, economic analysis suggests the plan likely pays for itself. Or, if we don’t pay for this, we’re all going to pay anyway, since *not* addressing climate change also carries trillions of dollars in climate risk.
As a direct funding mechanism, Biden plans to increase the corporate income tax rate to 28% from 21% to cover a large share of the costs. Interestingly, the Biden plan contains no mention of a tax on carbon or pollution, even though a carbon tax could also serve as a program funding source. Any leftover costs not covered by corporate tax increases or economic growth will receive other stimulus funding.
Not the Green New Deal, Still a Pretty Good Deal
At last week’s debate, Biden did his best to differentiate his climate plan from the AOC-Markey Green New Deal or Bernie Sander’s more ambitious climate plan. “The Green New Deal is not my plan,” he replied at one point, which we feel is also true from our reading and analysis.
But overall, the Biden climate plan has attractive qualities. It’s a national effort that speaks to the reality of the climate crisis and acknowledges a lot of the Green New Deal’s goals (in spirit if not by name), while taking a more moderate, middle-of-the-road approach on timelines, scopes, budgets, and environmental justice anchoring.
It’s a compromise, but an encouraging one that gives the world a genuine shot at navigating the threats of climate change and biodiversity loss if Biden takes office this coming January. Let’s all do what we can to make sure we get this shot.
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